Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD rose slightly and is trading at 1.09960. The US CPI report led to an unpredictable development: despite a lower than expected core inflation reading, core inflation remained flat, limiting further upside.
The economic outlook for the eurozone remains dim, with inflation expectations remaining high, as evidenced by a recent bulletin from the European Central Bank. Moreover, most economists polled by Reuters believe that the ECB's 2.0% inflation target will not be reached until 2025, with no interest rate cuts expected until mid-2024. This week, market participants are eagerly awaiting French inflation data for July, which could have an impact on EUR/USD. Meanwhile, the European economic calendar remains sparse: no speeches by ECB board members are expected today, which attracts media attention. 
In the US, the consumer price index in June amounted to 3.2% year-on-year, below the estimate of 3.3%. The core CPI excluding the volatile food and energy components fell to 4.7% from 4.8%. This causes the US dollar to fall, which subsequently affects the euro. In addition, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 248,000, beating the forecast of 230,000. Recent comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary K. Daley indicate the need for further analysis of the data, adding uncertainty to the future direction of interest rates. The focus now turns to upcoming U.S. inflation data. Analysts are forecasting that the producer price index, which gives an indication of the selling prices received by domestic manufacturers, will rise 0.2% in July. That would be the next step after June's 0.1% increase. The producer price index, which mainly reflects the prices of first trade transactions in goods and services, can predict trends in consumer price inflation. An increase in the index would indicate an increase in inflationary pressures on consumers. In addition, the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is expected to decline slightly to 71.0 from 71.6. 
The PPI is expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.7% year-on-year. At the same time, the expected release of the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey results, if favorable, could convince the Fed to hold off on rate hikes. This data still plays an important role in determining the further trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

The EUR/USD pair, trading at 1.09960, is slightly above the middle line of the Bollinger Band (1.09810). The upper Bollinger Bands located at 1.10280 indicates potential resistance in the short term, especially since price is in the upper range of this indicator. In addition, the Bollinger Bands are pointing horizontally, signaling the onset of a consolidation period. The price range is also narrowing, which often heralds a breakout to one side or the other. Given the Stochastic value of 16.5828 compared to the signal at 18.0700, we have a hint that the currency pair may be in oversold territory. This could support a bullish move, especially if the Stochastic crosses above the signal line. MACD, which has a value of 0.000465 and is above its signal line (0.000355), supports a potential bullish movement in the near term.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level : 1.10690.
Take Profit: 1.11400.
Stop Loss: 1.10200. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.09000.
Take profit: 1.08140.
Stop loss: 1.09500.