Brent Crude Morning Brief — July 24, 2026

Brent Crude trades above $100.00 per barrel this Friday morning, entering three-digit territory as unprecedented supply risks engulf all primary Middle Eastern maritime corridors. Escalating military tensions with Iran have severely constrained transit through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Saudi Arabia to reroute a significant share of exports via its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, which handled 3.65 million barrels per day in May. This alternative route requires navigating the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, where an intensified Houthi blockade has already reduced its share of global seaborne traffic from 10% to 3%. Addressing the surge, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that US policy resulted in three-digit oil prices, while senior advisor Mohammad Mokhber stressed that prices exceeding $100.00 stem directly from transportation bottlenecks rather than production capacity deficits.

Geopolitical logistics are further complicated along secondary maritime routes, with major Western energy companies raising concerns that Madagascar could enable sales of sanctioned Russian crude through the Mozambique Channel, a choke point processing nearly one-third of global seaborne trade. Meanwhile, European Union member states confirmed a one-year extension of the $44.10 per barrel price cap on Russian oil.

In response to global supply anxiety, OPEC+ members are likely to announce a full unwinding of voluntary production cuts during their August 2 meeting, alongside a potential September output increase of 188,000 barrels per day, according to Reuters.

Market Overview: The path of least resistance remains biased upward as severe maritime transit bottlenecks outweigh prospective supply increases. Sustained trading above the $100.00 milestone opens the technical trajectory toward overhead resistance at $103.50 and $105.00. On any localized technical retracement, initial support is anchored near $97.50, with a deeper structural floor positioned at $95.00.