USD/JPY Technical Analysis – H4

The pair continues to maintain its upward structure, currently forming a classic bullish flag. However, the trendline has yet to be tested, which keeps the probability of a pullback toward the 163.300 area intact. This zone is expected to attract the strongest buyer interest. At the same time, a potential break of the trend cannot be ruled out today if the FOMC delivers a surprise rate decision.

Key Levels:

□ 1. 164.000 – primary upside target

□ 2. 163.300 – key pullback support / buyer zone

□ 3. 162.000 – alternative downside objective

Primary Scenario

Pullback to 163.300, followed by a rebound toward 164.000.

Alternative Scenario

Decline toward 162.000.

Analyst Commentary

The bullish scenario remains the more probable outcome, yet today’s session is likely to feel more like a lottery. Reduce position sizes and manage risk carefully.