Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair started the new week strong, reaching the level of 1.09200, setting the stage for optimism in the European currency markets. 
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane recently stated that the Eurozone can avoid a prolonged recession. This sentiment has led to a rise in the single currency, especially as the German yield curve begins to tighten, suggesting that the ECB may adjust its policy. At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar provided support to the EUR/USD pair. The US Dollar Index fell to 103.130, but the resilience of the US economy suggests the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year, which could offset the sharp decline in the US Dollar. 
Expectations from the Jackson Hole symposium will underpin future market movements. Investors are particularly excited about the speeches of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde. The experience of Powell's previous speeches suggests that there may be surprises ahead of the event that could create uncertainty. In addition, upcoming PMI data in the eurozone and the US will show the state of the economy and whether central banks will be able to adjust interest rates. 
On Tuesday, the eurozone's current account balance will be in focus. This has increased significantly from a deficit of €11.3 billion to a surplus of €22 billion. While this may be a bullish signal for the EUR/USD pair, investors should analyze the reasons for such a sharp change. In addition, US data such as current home sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Business Activity Index could play an important role in shaping EUR/USD's short-term movements, as could US Treasury yields.... 
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Stochastic is currently at 83.8534 and its signal line is located at 73.5452. A value above 80 indicates overbought, which means a pullback or price consolidation is possible in the near term. Price approaching the upper Bollinger band and trading above the middle band indicates that there is a bullish trend in EUR/USD. The widening of the bands indicates an increase in volatility with an upward price direction. The MACD value is slightly below the signal line, but both values are close to zero, indicating neutral momentum. However, the difference between them is decreasing, which may indicate a possible bullish crossover in the near future. Considering the current technical analysis and indicators, the main scenario could be a brief consolidation or a small pullback due to overbought, followed by a possible bullish continuation.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.09490.
Take Profit: 1.10380.
Stop Loss: 1.09200. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.09000.
Take profit: 1.08140.
Stop loss: 1.09500.