BTC/USD Morning Brief: August 6, 2026

BTC/USD trades at $64,777 as spot prices maintain a tight consolidation range above key demand. The $63,000 area has established itself as the primary volume battleground between buyers and sellers, representing the largest high-volume node accumulated over recent months. Immediate intraday support holds firm around $63,000, while overhead supply limits initial recovery attempts near $65,000 and $66,500. Market sentiment metrics from Santiment show trader sentiment falling into a historic fear zone, driven by security concerns over a Coldcard wallet breach and ongoing treasury liquidations by Strategy.

Despite sentiment headwinds, underlying network and cycle metrics indicate an advanced stage of market floor formation. The share of circulating coins held in profit sits at 52%, meaning nearly half of all BTC is currently held at a loss, a structural condition characteristic of late-stage bear market bottoms. Analysts at Citi note that the broader bear market is approaching its final phase, reinforced by a bullish divergence between BTC price action and net capital inflows. A similar divergence pattern previously signaled the macro cycle bottom prior to the expansion from $15,000 to $126,000.

Underneath the surface, network utility and corporate balance sheets show steady underlying absorption. Weekly active addresses jumped 20% to surpass 720,000, pointing to expanding blockchain interaction despite price stagnation. Institutional appetite also remains positive, with SoSoValue data showing continued net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Furthermore, corporate disclosures confirm SpaceX retained its full treasury balance of 18,712 BTC, keeping its coin count completely unchanged despite lower carrying valuations.

Market Overview: Expanding on-chain activity and steady spot ETF inflows counteracting retail sentiment fear keep the intraday path of least resistance tilted toward gradual consolidation with a bullish tilt. For upcoming trading sessions, expected price action favors rotation within a $63,000 to $65,000 corridor. Primary resistance rests at $65,000, where a clean breakout is needed to ignite short-covering momentum toward $66,500. On the downside, preserving support above $63,000 remains vital for maintaining the local accumulation structure. An intraday breakdown below $63,000 risks triggering stop-loss cascades toward secondary demand at $61,500, while holding support keeps BTC/USD bound to its base-building pattern.